Why did Apple’s share cost fall and it is now a great time to purchase AAPL?

By on August 20, 2016


Why did Apple’s share cost fall and it is now a great time to purchase AAPL?

Apple reported record revenue of $54.5 billion and record quarterly profit of $13.1 billion after which its share cost dropped 10 %, falling as little as $452.35. What the heck is happening?

Many are predicting the demise of the very most valuable company on the planet. Having a Market Cap close to $430 billion (sometimes of writing) in comparison to Exxon Mobile’s $413.53 billion, how lengthy will Apple have the ability to maintain its number 1 position?

Incidentally, that $430 billion is simply over three occasions how big Apple’s growing cash reserves, now worth $137 billion. Add Apple’s other assets and the organization has almost $200 billion in assets. There are not many nations, not to mention companies, with this much cash staying with you.

What this effectively means is the fact that APPL is on purchase at this time.

Here’s the sales pitch as compiled by VentureBeat and The Network Garden blog.

  • Apple has not just one but six multi-billion dollar product lines.
  • Apple now has $137 billion of cash and cash equivalents which, added to its other assets, gives it almost $200 billion in assets.
  • At a price-earnings ratio of under ten, Apple is insanely cheaper than Amazon, which sports an ridiculous P/E of 3,583, believe it or not. And cheaper than Microsoft, which at least is sane at about 15, and Google, with a slightly higher 23.
  • Apple routinely beats its own projections, generating more revenue ($54B) in a quarter than Google generates in a year
  • Is consistently, mind-numbingly profitable, yielding outsized profits that have fattened their cash hoard to $137 billion dollars
  • Is unequaled in terms of having an R&D engine for creating new products that generate massive new revenue sources
  • Has cracked the code to selling in China ($7B in most recent quarter; 60% year-over-year growth

Why is everyone talking like Apple is falling apart then?

Despite revealing its best ever results, the overall consensus among minimal Apple friendly reviews is the fact that the organization skipped the targets set by Wall Street.

Apple really exceeded its very own guidance. In October when Apple introduced its fiscal 4th quarter results the organization stated it likely to report about $52 billion in revenue (a rise of 12% from last year’s $46.3 billion) and earnings of $11.75 per share for that October to December quarter.

Rather Apple published record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion which wasn’t remote the typical estimations of analysts. Analysts expected sales of $54.7 billion, based on the Street’s average.

Apple also recorded quarterly internet profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share. Many of the great news within the light of the Bloomberg report that were warning that Apple would to report a couplePercent stop by net gain, confirming just $12.8 billion.

Possibly instead of blame Apple because of not meeting analyst anticipations the finger should indicate analysts who’s predictions were to date from the mark. Fortune has evaluated and ranked the analysts for his or her predictions.

It’s in the margins

The other thing people were expecting was that Apple would report that its margins were down – the amount of money it was making in profit from the sales of each product.

Seeking Alpha outlines the gross margins and profit margins for the quarter compared to the past two years. As you can see it’s down in both cases.

  • Gross margin: Q1 2011 38.51%, Q1 2012 44.68%, Q1 2013 38.63%
  • Profit margin: Q1 2011 22.45%, Q1 2012 28.20%, Q1 2013 23.99%

The main reason everybody expected lower margins is the fact that Apple cautioned that it is Gross Margin (a stride of methods efficiently a business turns sales into profits) for that December quarter could be less than it’s been if this introduced the final group of financial results and again in the Form-10K. Apple Chief executive officer Tim Cook’s stated Apple “wants to see decreases in the gross margin percentage later on periods, as in comparison to levels accomplished during 2012”.

Apple anticipated a gross margin of approximately 36% throughout the first quarter of 2013, this even compares to a gross margin percentage this year of 43.9%, and also to 40.5% this year. As you can tell in the data above, Apple handled a gross margin of 38.63%.

One good reason for that loss of the proportion cost following a results was that Apple is not expecting margins to enhance next quarter either: the organization is forecasting gross margins between 37.5% and 38.5%.

Read: Good income, not growing share of the market is the best for Apple …

Unit sales and cannibalization

The cannibalization of greater cost items by less expensive items is yet another concern.

Curiously, should you consider the revenue per unit offered, it seems the average revenue in the iPhone continues to be same at $641 per unit (more or less per week), the iPad is less as $467 in comparison to $570 and Mac is a little more at $1,359 in comparison to $1,260. So, you might imagine, there’s been some cannibalization from the greater listed iPad.

This proof of the iPad small cannibalizing sales from the high-finish iPad highlights among the issues connected using the requires Apple to begin selling a financial budget iPhone. Apple can make less cash from the less expensive device.

Another product which the iPad is cannibalizing may be the Mac. Apple Chief executive officer Tim Prepare acknowledged the iPad small will probably cannibalize some iPad sales, and also the iPad some Mac sales. “It’s obvious [the iPad] has already been cannibalizing some,” Prepare stated.

“There is a considerable amount (of) chance there. I’ve stated for 2 or 3 years the tablet market is going to be bigger compared to PC market sooner or later. You can observe through the development in capsules and pressure on Computers that individuals line is starting to converge,” he added.

“I see cannibalization like a huge chance for all of us. One, our base philosophy would be to don’t worry cannibalization,” he stated throughout the business call with analysts that adopted the outcomes announcement.

Not enough iPhones sold?

Another supposed reason behind the loss of the need for APPL shares following a announcement was the observation that by selling 47,789,000 iPhones Apple had skipped analyst targets of 50m iPhones.

Within the run to the results announcement there was lots of speculation about reduced interest in the iPhone. Uncharacteristically, Prepare came focus on these recent whispers throughout the business call with analysts: “There has been plenty of gossips about order cuts and so on. Allow me to take the time to create a discuss this,” he stated, adding: “I recommend it’s best to question the precision associated with a type of rumour about build plans… Even when a specific data point were factual, it might be impossible to precisely interpret exactly what the data point intended for our overall business since the logistics is extremely complex.”

A fascinating reason for note: Apple has witnessed immense achievements because of the iPhone and much more lately the iPad. An enormous 60% of Apple’s revenue originates from individuals items – neither which been around six years back. With an modified quarter basis, iPhone models increased at 37% and iPads increased at 60%, Horace Dediu tweeted.

What seems to become spooking traders may be the competition and Samsung, who shipped 37 phones in a number of dimensions this past year emerged in questions. Cook’s reaction to an issue about how exactly Apple’s smartphone competition is concentrating on differentiating themselves with bigger screen dimensions was: “We put lots of thinking into display size and believe we selected the correct oneInch.

China in Apple’s hand

Another area that Apple watchers are curious about is China, along with other emerging marketplaces including India. It’s worth observing that Apple saw an enormous 67% revenue development in China within the Christmas quarter.

“When it comes to geographic distribution, we had greatest development in China, also it was in to the triple numbers,” Prepare throughout the business call.

Which means that China now accounts in excess of 1 / 2 of European sales and most one-third of yankee sales. Based on the organization, 61% of Apple’s total revenue originates from overseas.

“It’s interesting to determine how China keeps growing in importance for Apple so much in fact they started their revenue [in the earnings release],” Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi told Wired.

And yet the stock fell in after hours trading…

This isn’t by any means an unusual occurance. In fact, it’s common for Apple’s share price to fall in after hours trading. Looking at the history of the APPL stock around results time for the past two years, you can see:

Fiscal Year 2013
Jan 23, 2013 Apple Reports Q1 2013 Results [DOWN?]
Closes at $514.01 before the results are announced. Falls 10% to $458 in after hours trading.
Fiscal Year 2012
Oct 25, 2012 Apple Reports Q4 2012 Results [DOWN]
Closes at $606.77 before the results are announced. Opens at $609.43 but closes down at $601.25 on 24 January.
Jul 24, 2012 Apple Reports Q3 2012 Results [DOWN]
Closes at $595.63 before the results are announced. Opens at $574.46 and closes at $569.91 on 25 July.
Apr 24, 2012 Apple Reports Q2 2012 Results [UP]
Closes at $555.35 before the results are announced. Opens at $615.64 and closes up at $604.63 on 25 April.
Jan 24, 2012 Apple Reports Q1 2012 Results [UP]
Closes at $416.71 before the results are announced. Opens at $454.44 but closes up at $442.73 on 25 January.
Fiscal Year 2011
Oct 18, 2011 Apple Reports Q4 2011 Results [DOWN]
Closes at $418.52 before the results are announced. Opens at $401 and closes at $395.11 on 19 October
July 19, 2011 Apple Reports Q3 2011 Results [UP]
Closes at $373.53 before the results are announced. Opens at $396.12 but closes at $383.49 on 20 July.
Apr 20, 2011 Apple Reports Q2 2011 Results [UP]
Closes at $339.40 before the results are announced. Opens at $355.00 but closes at $347.61 on 21 April.
Jan 18, 2011 Apple Reports Q1 2011 Results [DOWN]
Closes at $337.65 before the results are announced. Opens at $348.35 but closes at $335.86 on 19 January.

What about everyone else?

Unfortunately Apple’s falling stock has impacted some of its suppliers around the world. Ibiden, which makes printed circuit boards for the iPhone, slid 5.7%, Foster Electric, Taiyo Yuden and Sharp slipped between 1% and 2.5%. And British chip designer ARM Holdings fell 1.9%.

Follow Karen Haslam on Twitter / Follow MacworldUK on Twitter


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Good profit margins, not growing market share is best for Apple …

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Does Apple really need to make a cheaper iPhone for China and India?


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